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Dare to fail. It’s the only way to succeed.

Trial and error, Marmite and recovering from heart attacks.

A few months ago, I was chatting to a client about possible emails for a marketing campaign. He was unsure which was the best one. He had three choices, and couldn’t decide. And yet the answer was staring him in the face. All three. Take his prospect list, lop off a sample, divide the lopped bit into three equal parts. Then send out one email to each part. Whichever works best is the one you go with. Encouraged by the results, he decided to take it one step farther. Rather than send this email to the remainder of the list, he had me write three variations on it. Then, he lopped off another bit, and split it into three again. Even more encouraging. The results were stellar for one, and average for the other two. So the stellar email was the one that eventually went out, with the best response he’s had in a long time. And yet it wasn’t the obvious choice. In fact, I know if he or I had seen it on Day 1, we’d both have said it didn’t stand  a chance of success. It wasn’t assertive enough, didn’t have a killer offer, and was slightly left-of-centre. We’d have dismissed it as an also-ran. And we’d have been wrong. But the only way of getting to the right answer was by trying out different solutions, and daring to fail. On a small scale, of course. Then, we succeeded – on a much bigger one. Trial and error was at the heart of Tim Harford’s recent talk at TED Global in Edinburgh. Harford is the fresh-faced economist who makes numbers sexy and explains the realities behind dry statistics in an engaging way. It was thanks to him that I learned last year about ‘vanity sizing’ of jeans – where waist measurements are deliberately understated, so you think you’re thinner than you are. In a world obsessed with certainty, and desperate to be right, Harford makes an eloquent plea for a little humility. If we admit we don’t know, it makes it easier to find out. If we stop trying to nail everything down and open our minds up to other outcomes, problems often magically fall away. Trial, error and the God complex is, as all TED talks are, limited to 18 minutes, and Tim comes in right on schedule. (Note the countdown clock at his feet, by the way. Enough to give even the most assured presenter the jitters.) If you’re reading in an email, click here to view the video. And if you want to find out more about jeans that flatter the fatter, check out Tim’s programme More or Less on the the BBC Radio 4 website.
Kevin Ideas, TED.
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