The truth about the truth

It’s not plain or simple. And that’s what makes it interesting.

Do you believe opinion polls? I don’t.

Although my faith in them has been a little restored after the uncannily accurate exit polls in this month’s UK election, I’m basically sceptical. Not because I don’t trust the pollsters. But because I don’t trust the pollees. And I don’t trust them because I was once one of them. “Is that Kevin Walsh?” trilled the woman as soon as I picked up the phone. I confirmed it was. And would I mind, she wondered, taking part in an opinion poll on politics? “Not at all,” I… almost said. And she was off. I’d never before heard anybody talk so fast, ask so many questions in such a short space of time, or sound so robotic. And I never have since. Did I vote in the last election? If so, for which party? Was I intending to vote for them in the next election? Was I wavering? Which of the following statements best describes me? (List of statements.) On a scale of 1 to 5, how would I rate… On and on it went. I answered as best I could, but sometimes, rather than think about it, I just plumped for an answer to move on. Some opinions I didn’t feel comfortable sharing with a complete stranger. Some questions, I’d never thought about. And in the end, I said anything to get her off the phone. “Thankyouforyourassistance!” she gushed. And with that, she was gone. I’d started with the best of intentions. But in the end, addled and slightly irritated, I simply said anything to bring the call to a swift end. And assuming everybody else she called was as surprised as I was and answered in the same way, the results of her survey couldn’t have been very accurate. So much for science.

Who’s fooling whom?

Often, people really and honestly think they’re telling the truth. But they’re not. It’s not that they’re dim or devious or deluded. They simply don’t realise that their perception is wrong. A few weeks ago, The Economist had a special report on television. And one of the articles talked about how people really watch television – as opposed to how they think they do. Now I’m not typical (yes, I know you knew that). I hardly ever watch live TV. I tape everything, bar the news and the weather, and watch it at my leisure. So I can stop for tea breaks and pee breaks, and skip those pesky ad breaks. And lots of people think they do that. But in reality, they don’t. They say they do, but the truth is somewhat different. In one case, a respondent said he watched recorded television 90% of the time. But actually, he watched live TV 67% of the time. When the researcher dug deeper, it emerged that the man had described how he watched TV when he was alone. But most of the time, he watched it with other people.

And nothing but…

So when you’re looking for the truth among your customers, prospects colleagues or friends, stop and think first. And remember some simple… truths:

Cross-check. No self-respecting journalist writes a story without verifying information from a single source. Confirm your initial findings, and be sure you’re happy they’re accurate.
Take things with a pinch of salt. Nobody admits they’re going to vote BNP, or that they adore adverts. Nobody buys Barry Manilow’s music or porn magazines. But they do. They do, and they might not want to tell you.
Don’t ignore the obvious. Often, things are precisely what they seem. There’s no hidden agenda or deep dark secret. The obvious is obvious for a reason.
Don’t jump to conclusions. Unrelated events often misleadingly appear as cause and effect. Your price increase might not have deterred people from buying. And conversely, your new ad campaign might not have caused that sales spike.
Don’t prompt (too much). A very wise woman once said to me “You get the answers to the questions you ask”. So frame those questions carefully, and don’t lead the witness. Approach your research with an open mind, and remember that you might not like the answers you get. But at least then you’ll know.
Remember, they’re human too. People prevaricate, dither and change their minds – just like you do. So allow for that.
There is no one truth. There are lots. Nobody likes to hear that there’s not one copper-bottomed, sure-fire, cover-all ‘right’ answer (ask me, I know). There is no absolute truth, when it comes to sales and marketing. So go for the 80% right answer, because you’ll never reach 100%.
They are not a blob. Remember when Margaret Thatcher said there was no such thing as society? She drew a hail of fire from all quarters for such heresy. But really, she meant that society is made up of individuals. Just like your customer base and prospect list.

And that’s the plain and simple truth. Honest. Find out more:

Blob the Builder: Matthew Parris in The Spectator on why there is no such thing as WOTP (will of the people).
Changing the channel:The Economist’s special report on television.
Heavy mettle: The Iron Lady on society (it doesn’t exist).

Kevin Ideas, Marketing.